Skip to main content
GioModel
Launch Portfolio
FOUR SECURITIES + POSITION MODELS / DOWNLOAD LIBRARY

The data
room.

Historical prices, engineered values, validation results, and simulation ranges—organized as traceable workbooks and audit files. This room is free to read, and so are the source, protocol, and gate files behind the method. The frozen forecast releases and Step 7 simulation workbooks need a Forecasts membership.

Securities
ASTS + HOOD + NKE + UBER
Latest freeze
31 Jul 2026
Price policy
Declared per model
EXCEL WORKBOOKS21
RESEARCH MODELS4
OUT-OF-SAMPLE DATES2,914
DEPLOYABLE SIGNALS0
MODELED STOCK / ASTS / SOURCE LAYER

Start with the frozen history.

Every later workbook is downstream of this source table. Keep its date, price policy, and warnings attached to any analysis.

MODEL 1 / RELEVANT VALUES

Follow every transformation.

Move from the target definition to 23 frozen features, 740 unseen outputs, the evidence gates, and research-only forecast ranges.

01TARGET & DEFINITIONS

Model target

The prediction clock, five-session label, field definitions, and target-quality checks.

  • Decision-time contract
  • Label audit
  • Research boundary
Step 1 Excel
03FEATURE VALUES

Feature library

The trailing-only price, probability, volatility, volume, and market-context features.

  • 23 frozen features
  • 1,249 model rows
  • No forward inputs
Step 3 Excel
04MODEL OUTPUTS

Phase A replay and Phase B repair

The workbook preserves the five Phase A candidates and adds distinct Phase B sheets for three repair paths and four audited outputs on the same 740 development dates.

  • 740 development dates
  • 12 purged folds
  • Phase B separate
Step 4 Excel
05STRESS EVIDENCE

Two-phase evidence audit

The workbook preserves the Phase A gate record and adds distinct Phase B sheets. Raw Phase B files report each candidate's own nine-gate result without combining passes.

  • Phase A 1 / 9
  • Phase B best 2 / 9
  • Never aggregated
Step 5 Excel
06DECISION RECORD

Summary & repair audit

The benchmark-only controller, separate repair diagnostics, and gate-by-gate recovery plan keep the fold-local prior active.

  • 2 / 9 best individual
  • 50.95% prior accuracy
  • Benchmark only
Step 6 Excel
07SIMULATION VALUES

Forecast distributions

Five-engine audit, percentile ranges, run stability, interval coverage, and tail probabilities.

  • 5 · 10 · 21 sessions
  • 50,000 paths each
  • 0 / 3 approved
Step 7 Excel
MODEL 1 / PHASE B / DEVELOPMENT ONLY

Inspect each repair as its own model.

These artifacts reuse the same 740 dates. Gate passes stay with the candidate that earned them and are never aggregated.

B1SELECTED PRIOR-RANK RIDGE FAMILY

Flat but more consistent

The selected family passes G4 and G8 and reaches 9 of 12 positive folds, but qcut ECE is 6.028% and median within-fold standard deviation is only 0.000569. Its downloadable family summary also contains the unselected empirical-bin member, the closest all-three diagnostic.

  • 2 / 9 gates
  • Within-fold std. 0.000569
  • Prior remains active
Calibration family run log Calibration family gates Calibration family summary
B2UNSELECTED EMPIRICAL-BIN MEMBER

Closest all-three diagnostic

It posts +0.000871 Brier improvement, 0.502218 AUC, and 8 of 12 positive folds, but qcut ECE is 5.5738%, missing the gate by 0.5738 percentage points.

  • 2 / 9 gates
  • Within-fold std. 0.027692
  • Not selected
Calibration family summary
MODELED STOCK / HOOD / SOURCE LAYER

Start with the frozen history.

Every later workbook is downstream of this source table. Keep its date, price policy, and warnings attached to any analysis.

MODEL 2 / RELEVANT VALUES

Follow every transformation.

Move from the target definition to 60 frozen features, 685 unseen outputs, the evidence gates, and research-only forecast ranges.

01TARGET & DEFINITIONS

HOOD target contract

The five-session direction label, decision-time rule, benchmark, and predeclared evidence gates.

  • Raw-close direction
  • Five-session purge
  • Nine gates
Step 1 Excel
03FEATURE VALUES

Cross-asset feature library

Trailing price, volatility, regime, peer, lagged-crypto, probability, and post-event values.

  • 60 trailing features
  • 1,115 feature-ready rows
  • No same-day event input
Step 3 Excel
04MODEL OUTPUTS

Phase A five-candidate replay

The original five-candidate workbook is preserved unchanged; Step 4 separately documents the three-member Phase B challenger family and selected Signed Core Ridge on the same development dates.

  • 685 development dates
  • 11 purged folds
  • 3 Phase B challengers
Step 4 Excel
05STRESS EVIDENCE

Two-phase evidence audit

The workbook preserves the original Phase A audit; Step 5 applies those same gates to the verified Phase B challenger.

  • Phase A 0 / 9
  • Phase B 2 / 9
  • Still no-go
Step 5 Excel
06DECISION RECORD

Summary & model recommendation

The preserved Phase A record and the site’s Phase B addendum keep the 55.75% fold-local prior active pending a fresh paper-forward test.

  • 60.40% experimental
  • 55.75% active prior
  • Benchmark only
Step 6 Excel
07SIMULATION VALUES

Event-bounded forecast ranges

Conditional analog backtests, five-seed stability, percentile paths, and the Q2 event boundary.

  • 5 · 10 · 21 sessions
  • 50,000 paths each
  • 0 / 3 approved
Step 7 Excel
MODELED STOCK / NKE / SOURCE LAYER

Start with the frozen history.

Every later workbook is downstream of this source table. Keep its date, price policy, and warnings attached to any analysis.

MODEL 3 / RELEVANT VALUES

Follow every transformation.

Move from the target definition to 38 frozen features, 1,237 unseen outputs, the evidence gates, and research-only forecast ranges.

01TARGET & DEFINITIONS

NKE target contract

The split-normalized five-session label, actual 40-event ex-date censor, benchmark, and nine frozen evidence gates.

  • Dividend-censored direction
  • Five-session purge
  • Target frozen first
Step 1 Excel
02SOURCE & QUALITY LEDGER

NKE point-in-time source pack

Ten synchronized market histories, 68 SEC filing events, the 40-event actual ex-dividend ledger, data-quality checks, and source hashes.

  • 2,513 sessions
  • Next-session SEC joins
  • 40 actual ex-dates
Step 2 Excel
03POINT-IN-TIME FEATURES

NKE feature library

Trailing price, market, peer, macro-proxy, and filed-fundamental values with the original decision-time boundary preserved.

  • 38 selected features
  • 2,450 complete rows
  • Next-session SEC joins
Step 3 Excel
04AUDIT-CORRECTED TRAINING RECORD

Development selection & holdout

Three compact ridge families, ten purged outer folds, nested calibration, and 252 terminal labels spanning 272 sessions.

  • 1,237 development OOS rows
  • 252 terminal labels
  • 5 declared retrains
Step 4 Excel
05STRESS EVIDENCE

Nine-gate evidence audit

Holdout uncertainty, calibration, flatness, fold consistency, five-run stability, null testing, and regime evidence.

  • 2 / 9 gates
  • ECE 10.67%
  • Forecast std. 2.02%
Step 5 Excel
06DECISION RECORD

Summary & model recommendation

The canonical no-go result, failed-gate diagnoses, and a fresh paper-forward evidence plan without reusing the holdout.

  • NO-GO
  • G3 + G6 pass
  • Independent evidence required
Step 6 Excel
07SIMULATION VALUES

Linked-analog research ranges

Five-, ten-, and 21-session percentile bands, CRPS backtests, daily paths, and explicit effective-support disclosure.

  • 300 unique analogs
  • 5d stat fail · 10d/21d pass
  • 0 / 3 deployment-approved
Step 7 Excel
MODEL 3 / REPRODUCIBILITY PACK

Audit the result below the workbook layer.

These files expose the exact row-level predictions, gate ledger, canonical result, executed notebook, and simulation payload behind the published no-go recommendation.

R1CANONICAL RESULT

Model 3 results JSON

The single machine-readable record for target, data, methodology, holdout metrics, gates, runs, sources, and simulation.

  • One source of truth
  • Schema versioned
  • Source ledger embedded
Download file
R2REPRODUCIBLE AUDIT

Validation notebook

An executed notebook that reloads the exported evidence, checks calculations, and reproduces the central validation figures.

  • Executed cells
  • Zero notebook errors
  • Reusable audit trail
Download file
R3MODEL INPUTS

Feature matrix CSV

The complete feature-ready NKE table with labels, eligibility flags, and the 38 selected point-in-time values.

  • 2,450 rows
  • 38 selected features
  • Chronological grain
Download file
R4TERMINAL OUTPUTS

Holdout predictions CSV

All 252 terminal-holdout predictions, expanding-history baselines, labels, and row-level losses from the audit-corrected rerun.

  • 252 predictions
  • 272-session calendar span
  • Row-level audit
Download file
R5GATE LEDGER

Evidence gates CSV

The nine frozen rules, observed values, and pass/fail outcomes used to make the no-go recommendation.

  • 2 pass
  • 7 fail
  • No gate waiver
Download file
R6SIMULATION PAYLOAD

Research simulation JSON

Terminal percentiles, daily bands, backtests, and five model-run probabilities for the interactive simulation.

  • 5 · 10 · 21 sessions
  • 300 effective analogs
  • 0 approved horizons
Download file
R7PROVENANCE LEDGER

Source ledger JSON

Retrieval time, exact source URLs, row coverage, source roles, snapshot hashes, and point-in-time boundary notes.

  • 10 market snapshots
  • SEC Company Facts
  • SHA-256 hashes
Download file
R8FILED FUNDAMENTALS

Point-in-time fundamentals CSV

The filed revenue, margin, inventory, and filing-age inputs used by Model 3, preserving the original SEC filing dates used for next-session eligibility.

  • Filed-date boundary
  • No earlier backfill
  • Raw filing context
Download file
R9DIVIDEND LEDGER

NKE ex-dividend events CSV

The 40 actual ex-dividend dates used to censor only five-session target paths that cross a recorded event.

  • 40 observed ex-dates
  • 2016–2026
  • Ledger hash preserved
Download file
R10AUDIT-CORRECTED PROTOCOL

Frozen protocol JSON

The corrected target, filing-availability rule, development-defined regimes, exact shift null, seeds, and nine gates fixed before the rerun.

  • Reproducible rerun
  • Not externally preregistered
  • Not independent confirmation
Download file
MODELED STOCK / UBER / REPRODUCIBILITY PACK

An audit-corrected position-range release.

UBER uses 1,816 source-reported Nasdaq sessions and a 37-feature challenger library, with separate selection and calibration periods, two strict 21-session embargoes, and a 252-origin historical terminal comparison. The invalid first run is discarded. Four of nine gates pass; every range remains unapproved.

U1FROZEN MARKET PANEL

UBER market history

Source-reported UBER OHLCV aligned by completed session with SPY, QQQ, XLY, IYT, and LYFT.

  • 10 May 2019 — 31 Jul 2026
  • 1,815 fully joined sessions
  • 1 quarantined target OHLC row
Download market CSV
U2MACHINE-READABLE RELEASE

UBER model record

Candidate selection, calibration, terminal metrics, gates, scenarios, risk inputs, and file hashes in one release.

  • 252 historical terminal origins
  • 4 / 9 gates
  • 0 / 3 horizons approved
Download release JSON
U3HISTORICAL GATE AUDIT

Evidence ledger

All nine locked rules, comparators, observed values, and pass/open outcomes without threshold waivers.

  • G2 · G3 · G5 · G8 pass
  • Five gates remain open
  • NO-GO preserved
Download gate CSV
U4APPEND-ONLY FORWARD TEST

Future evidence ledger

The frozen forecast registry and outcome ledger are ready to accumulate genuinely new, non-overlapping evidence.

  • 0 eligible new outcomes
  • 90-day span required
  • No retroactive mutation
Download forward ledger Download forward summary
PORTFOLIO / SAVED POSITIONS / JOINT DISTRIBUTION

Forecast the portfolio, not isolated cards.

The portfolio build audits 33 supplied workbooks across v5–v59. It preserves materialized history, same-date dependence, time-ordered validation, and fail-closed gates. Manual scores, cached probabilities, mutable snapshots, and blank outcome ledgers are not imported as evidence.

P1MACHINE-READABLE RELEASE

Joint scenario model

V2 keeps the selected candidate's evidence frozen but displays the expanding benchmark because that benchmark scored better on the already-inspected terminal comparison.

  • 512 correlated scenarios per horizon
  • ASTS + HOOD + NKE same-date outcomes
  • Fail-closed benchmark fallback · 4 / 9 gates
Download release JSON
P2LOCKED GATE LEDGER

Position-forecast evidence

Nine predeclared rules covering data quality, lookahead, interval score, median error, coverage, calibration, consistency, reproducibility, and genuinely new forward evidence.

  • 1,255 common completed sessions
  • 252-origin terminal holdout
  • No threshold waivers
Download gate CSV
P3PREDECLARED METHOD

Fail-closed position protocol

The v2 policy preserves every v1 gate and switches displayed ranges to the benchmark whenever the selected candidate fails comparative skill and consistency gates.

  • No gate or threshold waivers
  • Underperforming candidates cannot drive ranges
  • Independent evidence still required
Download protocol
P421-WORKBOOK LEGACY AUDIT

What was integrated—and rejected

File hashes, exact workbook roles, confirmed defects, safe concepts, and the evidence boundary for every supplied v5–v34 position-model workbook.

  • 21 workbooks · zero independent models
  • Zero officially closed workbook forecasts
  • Marginal risk contribution reused after forecasting
Download audit JSON
P5RETROSPECTIVE ARITHMETIC CHECK

V34 ASTS + NKE due-date joins

Six overlapping legacy rows are joined to later frozen closes. The check is reproducible, but none of the rows qualifies as independent deployment evidence.

  • 2 unique decisions · 6 horizon rows
  • 5 / 6 direction hits · mean Brier 0.1801
  • 0 rows eligible for Gate 9
Download scored rows
P6PREDECLARED CHALLENGER RESULT

Legacy technical family rejected

Per-stock momentum, Wilder RSI, prior-only relative volume, market regime, breadth, and dispersion were tested under a frozen development protocol and did not beat the incumbent.

  • Prefix invariance passed
  • Selection used development origins only
  • No technical candidate promoted
Download challenger result
ALL MODELS / LIVE TECHNICAL LAYER

Current context, separately validated.

The same completed-session momentum, Wilder RSI, and relative-volume definitions now sit beside ASTS, HOOD, and NKE. They remain outside the frozen deployment models until independent evidence earns a promotion.

22TERMINAL HOLDOUT SUMMARY

Technical challenger audit

A fixed 252-label comparison of the shared momentum, RSI, and volume challenger against a compact price-volume benchmark.

  • Same formulas across all three stocks
  • 3,000 paired block-bootstrap draws
  • 0 of 3 challengers promoted
Download summary CSV
23MACHINE-READABLE METHOD

Feature formulas and evidence

Exact feature definitions, holdout dates, baseline and challenger metrics, promotion rules, and limitations in one JSON record.

  • Wilder RSI 14
  • 20-session momentum and relative volume
  • Frozen model gates remain unchanged
Download audit JSON
LIVESAME-ORIGIN MARKET CONTEXT

Latest technical state

A cached GioModel endpoint supplies separately timestamped prices and completed-session indicators, with per-stock fallbacks when a source is unavailable.

  • ASTS + HOOD + NKE only
  • Price and indicator freshness shown separately
  • No browser request to a third-party market host
View live JSON
RESEARCH LAYERS

Every derived artifact, and what it refuses.

These are the descriptive layers built on top of the frozen model releases. None is gated, none forecasts anything, and several exist mainly to record what could not honestly be computed. Each links to the artifact a reader would need to recompute it.

READ BEFORE USE

Values carry their boundaries.

These files are frozen research artifacts with target-specific price and event policies. The separately timestamped live technical layer is market context, not investment advice or evidence that any model has a deployable edge.

Read the guide