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GioModel
Launch Portfolio
ModelsModel 3 · NKEStep 1
MODEL 3 · STEP 1

Define
the target.

Freeze a split-aware question that censors only paths crossing one of 40 actual NKE ex-dividend dates.

MARKET CONTEXT · OUTSIDE MODEL FREEZENKE

These readings update independently. They are not model inputs, deployment evidence, or a trading recommendation.

Latest price
$38.40
· fallback
20D momentum
-7.9%
Close-to-close · 20 completed sessions
RSI 14
40.1
neutral · Wilder method
Relative volume
0.7×
Versus the prior 20 completed sessions

TECHNICALS THROUGH · TIMESTAMPED FALLBACK

THE QUESTION

Will NKE close higher five completed sessions from now?

At each completed regular-session close, Model 3 estimates whether the source-reported, split-normalized NKE close five sessions later is above today's close. Ties belong to class 0.

TARGET SPECIFICATIONnke_actual_ex_date_censored_direction_5d_v2
AUDIT-CORRECTED / V2
yₜ =1

if the split-normalized NKE close at t + 5 is greater than close at t

yₜ =0

otherwise, including a tie; declared dividend-crossing rows are censored

AssetNKE
Decision timeAfter completed close
Horizon5 trading sessions
Primary scoreBrier improvement
WHY THIS IS BETTER

The corrected protocol censors only paths crossing one of 40 actual NKE ex-dates. It was frozen before the corrected rerun, after the provisional audit exposed the earlier calendar proxy; it is reproducible, but not independent or externally preregistered.

PRIMARY SOURCES

Nasdaq NKE historical quotes · NIKE SEC filings · NIKE investor relations · NIKE FY2026 results. The downloadable source ledger preserves retrieval time, URLs, row counts, and snapshot hashes.

NEXTStep 2 · Source the data

Continue through the audit-corrected Model 3 workflow.

Download Excel Continue to Step 2